RMB broke 7 northbound funds and rushed ahead of schedule？
Addition of rare earth gold last week
RMB broke 7 northbound funds and rushed ahead of schedule?
Addition of rare earth gold last week
Once the RMB exchange rate broke 7, the northbound funds once again rushed ahead?
Source of the latest increase in stocks: Securities Times, US stocks for three consecutive days, out of a significant downward trend, the market sentiment on the trend of A shares has risen again.
On Friday, the maximum net net worth of Northbound funds exceeded 6.8 billion yuan, a new high in nearly three months.
As of now, northbound funds have continued to expand and expand, with a net value of more than 2 billion yuan on the day.
Earlier this morning, offshore, the onshore RMB against the US dollar against the US dollar both fell below the 7 mark, related devaluation concept stocks such as Igor, Dilisheng, Huafang shares rose sharply, gold concept stocks rose strongly.
Taken together, since the end of 2018, the flow of capital from the north has deviated from the trend of 南宁桑拿 the exchange rate of the US dollar against the renminbi. With reference to the continued inflow of capital from the north, its sensitivity to exchange rate changes has increased significantly.
At the end of 2018, the offshore RMB exchange rate was from 6.
92 rose to 6 at the end of February.
68. The phased net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 100 billion yuan.
At the end of April, the offshore renminbi started from 6.
Near 68 continued to drop to 6.
Near 94, the phased net reduction of northbound funds was nearly 50 billion yuan.
In mid-June, the offshore renminbi appreciated slightly to 6 through the easing of trade frictions.
Around 86, phased net inflows of northbound funds reappeared.
Looking at a certain situation in the past, the duration of the multiple additional inflows and outflows of northbound funds has remained roughly at about one month. There will be great doubts as to whether the previous plot will be repeated this time.
From the time point of view, the changes in the northbound funds in the past two times show that there is a certain amount of advance in the northbound funds relative to the exchange rate changes, which is about 10-15 days ahead of the exchange rate changes.
The changes in the northward capital released this time are almost in sync with changes in the exchange rate.
The RMB will not depreciate in a trending way. For the RMB exchange rate breaking 7, until today, the RMB exchange rate “broken 7”. This “7” is not an age, and it cannot be returned in the past, nor is it a dam. Once it is breached,”7″ is more like a reservoir’s water level. It is higher during the high water period and lowers during the low water period. It is normal for fluctuations to occur.
In response to the possible positive feedback behavior in the foreign exchange market, we must take necessary and targeted measures to resolutely crack down on short-term speculation, maintain the stable operation of the foreign exchange market, and stabilize market expectations.
The People’s Bank of China has experience, confidence, and ability to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.
Deng Haiqing believes that a proper and rational view of the RMB exchange rate breaking “7” means excessive panic.
The dash of the RMB exchange rate issued this time is “7”, which indicates that the two-way elastic space for RMB exchange rate swaps has increased. From a fundamental point of view, the US economy has gradually shifted downward, while the Chinese economy has maintained a bottom shock and a moderate recovery.
As long as appropriate measures are taken, the RMB exchange rate can be maintained at a reasonable level of stability, and there will be no obvious trend of depreciation.
From the perspective of A-share performance and its own trend, A-share performance and its own trend have begun to show sufficient performance, compared with the previous three trade friction events of March 22, 2018, June 15, 2018, and May 5, 2019.After the market performance, the decline in A shares was smaller this time.
The three closing losses of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index were 3 each.
6%, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed down only 1 last Friday.
4%, showing that the impact of trade friction has weakened marginally.
However, it should be noted that in August, listed companies will release intensive reports. Some of the existing white horse stocks in the variables may not meet the expectations, such as Liling mustard and East Ejiao, and whether northbound funds have significantly reduced the position of white horse consumer stocks.Will continue to be worth tracking.
The data shows that in the process of high netness of Northbound funds last Friday, resource stocks have been focused on by Northbound funds. From the perspective of changes in shareholdings in tradable shares, rare and gold have become the focus of Northbound funds. Among the top 20, Minmetals Rare Earth, Tianqi Lithium, Shenghe Resources, Hengbang, Chinalco International, CICC Gold, Northern Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten are all resource stocks.
From the past five trading days, Zhongji Xuchuang, Halo New Network, Guangxun Technology, Aokang, Eton Electronics, Westone, Dahua and other shareholdings have increased in size, mainly based on technology stocks.
In essence, Huanxu Electronics, Boss Electric, BTG Hotel, Quanzhi Technology, Changying Precision, Fuling mustard and other shareholdings have seen the largest declines, and the home appliance and consumer sectors are indeed suffering from reductions.
The second expansion of MSCI will expand the combined performance indicators to the short-term changes that the market is concerned about. Institutions will pay more attention to the situation of passive incremental overseas funds in August. The second expansion of MSCI by AMS will be implemented. MSCI will announce the index on August 7.The quarterly adjustment results will take effect after the close on August 27.
One of the important adjustments is the expansion of A shares, that is, the proportion of A shares in the broader market has been increased from 10% to 15%.
China Merchants Securities believes that the upcoming adjustment will bring in passive incremental funds of 3.6 billion US dollars (about 24.5 billion US dollars), and the passive incremental funds are likely to flow in before the close of the day on the 27th.The initiative to increase funds is in a certain market environment.
If U.S. inflation picks up, the Fed’s policy may be adjusted, and then a stronger US dollar will put pressure on the renminbi, which may disturb the funds going north.
On the contrary, the upward momentum of the US dollar index is insufficient, and there is a high probability that the funds for going north will be deployed in August.
Open Source Securities believes that the MSCI adjustment is imminent, and A shares are expected to be exhausted.
The strategy of “striving for peace” aimed at letting the agricultural state vote is expected to bring about a turn for the better in the near future.
This year, MSCI’s expansion of A shares will be consolidated in three stages, from 5% to 10% in May, 15% in August, and 20% in November.
In November, it was called dividing the Chinese A-share mid-cap stocks by the MSCI index.
With the promotion of factors other than A shares, objectively attracting inflows of passive funds, the A share market will also become more and more open, and accelerate the process of internationalization.
Great Wall Securities believes that this expansion is expected to bring about 140 billion yuan of passive incremental funds overseas.
According to the experience of developing countries, foreign countries will also lay out relevant score lines in advance. Therefore, the trend of continued net inflow of funds from north to August is expected to remain unchanged.