Tianfeng Xu Biao interprets the important news during the Spring Festival: optimistic about the rebound window period of the GEM

Tianfeng Xu Biao interprets the important news during the Spring Festival: optimistic about the rebound window period of the GEM

[Tianfeng Strategy]One minute to understand the events during the Spring Festival Source analyst Xu Biao Original Tianfeng strategy One minute to understand the events during the Spring Festival Year by year, it is a new year, thank you all investorsAttention and support, I wish everyone good health, happy family, and smooth investment!

!!
In the future, we will work harder and continue to maintain the style of “do not mess”.

  Summary 1, Review of Overseas Markets During the Spring Festival: One Week of the Spring Festival (2.

4-2.

8) The majority of overseas large-scale assets have declined: among them, the stock market, except for FTSE in the UK, has risen, US stocks and Hong Kong stocks have remained basically flat, and most of the other major countries’ stock markets have fallen to varying degrees.

When the foreign exchange market has lowered its economic expectations in many regions around the world, many of them have experienced attenuation values. Under severe circumstances, the US dollar is relatively strong.

Commodities performed mixed.

  2. Domestic keywords: Sino-US trade negotiations, box office at the Spring Festival, etc.

Domestic issues that deserve special attention after the Spring Festival include the report of the work of the local two congresses, the termination date of the Sino-US negotiations on March 1, and the notice of the termination date of the first quarter report of the GEM on April 10.

  3, overseas keywords: US State of the Union address, global economic downgrades in various regions, US stocks important performance reports, etc.

After the Spring Festival, overseas issues that deserve special attention include: Brexit progress, the rise and fall of US stocks, and the impact on inflow transactions, and the Fed’s final decision to reduce its balance sheet.

  4, the core view of the Tianfeng strategy: optimistic about the rebound window of the ChiNext.

On January 29th, Tianfeng Strategy united the industry team. In the darkest moments of continuous thunderstorms, it was most optimistic about the oversold rebound of growth and recommended oversold portfolios.

For specific oversold portfolio targets, please refer to “End of Dark Time!”

Layout growth plate oversold portfolio!

“.

  We focus on promising directions: military industry, head brokers, network security, 5G, industrial Internet.

  Review of overseas market performance during the Spring Festival

4-2.

8) The majority of overseas large-scale assets have declined: among them, the stock market, except for FTSE in the UK, has risen, US stocks and Hong Kong stocks have remained basically flat, and most of the other major countries’ stock markets have fallen to varying degrees.

When the foreign exchange market has lowered its economic expectations in many regions around the world, many of them have experienced attenuation values. Under severe circumstances, the US dollar is relatively strong.

Commodities performed mixed.
Interpretation of domestic news during the Spring Festival, domestic news focuses on: Sino-US trade negotiations, the box office of the Spring Festival and so on.

Domestic issues that deserve special attention after the Spring Festival include the report of the work of the local two congresses, the termination date of the Sino-US negotiations on March 1, and the notice of the termination date of the first quarter report of the GEM on April 10.

  1. Keyword 1: Trade war. Looking back at the Spring Festival last year, the first key word in domestic news was also the trade war. At that time, the US Department of Commerce released the National Security Investigation Report (232 investigation) for steel and aluminum products.All focus on trade.

  But in hindsight, this was the biggest misjudgment at the time.

  From the subsequent 301 investigation report, the two US-Japan-Europe joint statements, and the Sino-US negotiation statement issued by the United States, can confirm that the biggest difference between China and the Western countries represented by the United States is not the trade itself, or the mandatory technology transfer and itsThe industries involved are supplemented by state-owned enterprises.

  For a discussion of this part of the issue and detailed data on industrial supplements by listed companies, we can review our annual strategy report at the end of last year, “Top Ten Prospects for 2019-A-Share Market Annual Investment Strategy.”

  Going back to the present, from February 14th to 15th, Vice Premier Liu He of the State Council and representatives of the US side set a new round of high-level indicators for China-US trade.

It is expected that this meeting will directly affect whether the US side will raise tariffs on China ‘s 200 billion imports of goods after the 90-day negotiations between China and the US are terminated on March 1.

  2. Keyword 2: The box office of the Chinese New Year through the sinking of the cinema market and the rapid development of the movie market, the Chinese New Year movie market in the Year of the Pig has continued the popularity of the year of the dog.

According to real-time data from Cat’s Eye, as of 9am on February 10th, in the four popular movies of the Spring Festival, “Wandering Earth”, “Crazy Aliens”, “Flying Life” and “The King of New Comedy” respectively won 16.

82 billion, 13.

22 billion, 9.

52 billion, 5.

At 1.1 billion box office, the total box office in the first to fourth quarters has exceeded 4 billion, which is close to the “7-day 5.6 billion” performance in the Year of the Dog.

It is worth mentioning that the alien-made “Wandering Earth” won the box office and gained a lot of word of mouth. It also caused a sci-fi fever on the social network and was very topical. It changed the phenomenon of comedy films dominating the Spring Festival in the past few years.However, behind the beautiful data, we must also see that high fares are an important support for high box office this year, and some mainstream media polls have also reported this phenomenon.

The number of moviegoers, attendance and other data may not be as optimistic as the box office data itself.

  Interpretation of overseas news during the Spring Festival, overseas news focuses on: the State of the Union address, the global economic downgrade in various regions, and important performance reports of US stocks.

After the Spring Festival, overseas issues that deserve special attention include: Brexit progress, the rise and fall of US stocks, and the impact on inflow transactions, and the Fed’s final decision to reduce its balance sheet.

  1. Keyword 1: Issue the National Advisory in advance On February 5, the U.S. President replaced the National Advisory in his speech in Congress. The speech involved a series of issues, including: US-Mexico border control issues, the Middle East issue, and medical and health policies., National security and foreign policy, judicial reform, infrastructure reconstruction, trade issues, women’s issues, etc.

  Among them, strengthening the US-Mexico border control and building a separation wall are one of the focuses of this speech.

It was initially stated that illegal immigration is the biggest duplication between the working class and the ruling class in the United States. Reopening the border, the working class will need to bear the cost of losing jobs and be forced to accept the cost of reducing wages. The construction of the separation wall can effectively reduce illegal immigration.

While Congress ‘s border control is significant in advance, it has further pressured Democrats in Congress, saying that Congress has only passed a bill to strengthen border control and requires Congress to expand the construction of “smart, strategic” andSee-through steel spacer. ”

  In addition, the previous paragraph in the State of the Union address talked about the Middle East issue, which involved two aspects: 1) defending its decision to withdraw troops from Syria and Afghanistan; 2) making a strong statement against the Iranian government, alleging that the Iranian government isThe regime calling for death and threatening genocide against the Jewish people “also increasingly reflects the political stance of the government’s consistent” pro-Israel (Israel) anti-Iran (Iran) “.

  It should be noted that in this State of the Union speech, China was not highlighted as a country and was cited only a few times on trade issues, and the wording on trade issues basically continued the existing wording.

According to this, surging news predicts that in 2019, in addition to continuing to maintain strategic pressure on China, Russia, and North Korea, the government’s attention will inevitably turn to the Middle East, especially Iran.

  2. Keyword 2: Many regions around the world lower their economic expectations. On January 31, Eurostat ‘s GDP data for the fourth quarter was released by Eurostat. The data showed that Eurozone GDP grew by 0% month-on-month.

2%, in line with expectations and equal to the previous value, the lowest growth rate since 2014; year-on-year growth of 1.

2%, in line with expectations, lower than the previous value of 1.

6%.

Initially, the GDP of the euro area increased by 1 year-on-year in 2018.

8%, down from 2 in 2017.

4%.

Democracy, the European Central Bank has said that due to the impact of global trade frictions and the uncertainty of Brexit, the risks to the economic outlook of the euro area have “goed down.”

  In terms of countries and regions, Italy’s economic recession in the fourth quarter deepened, and the quarterly GDP growth rate was -0.

2%, lower than expected -0.

1% and -0 in the previous quarter.

1%.

At the same time, Italy is the first economy in the G7 sanctions to enter a recession, and it is also the first among the EU replacements to enter a recession.

German economic growth has weakened. In the third quarter of 2018, the growth rate of German GDP has replaced 1.

1%, the slowest growth rate since 2013Q3, while Germany’s GDP growth rate in the ten years of 2018 was 1.

5%, and the German Economy Minister recently stated that in 2019, Germany is likely to achieve 1.

0% GDP growth.

The rapid growth of France’s exports drove the overall GDP growth rate. In Q4 2018, France’s GDP grew by 0% month-on-month.

3%, exceeding the market expectations of 0.

2%.

  Fears of global economic growth continue to cloud the market.

On Thursday, the European Commission lowered its economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone and the European Union, and the United Kingdom extended its downward revision of its economic growth forecasts.

What worries the market is that both the European Commission and the UK point out that responding to global economic growth trends is one of the considerations.

  On Friday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2019 from 3.

25% adjusted up to 2.

5%.

Prior to this, the European Commission on Thursday raised its GDP growth forecast for the 19 countries in the euro zone from 1 in 2019.

苏州夜网论坛
9% down to 1.

3%; cut the growth rate of the EU-27 in 2019 from 2% to 1.5%.

The British pound will forecast the UK’s 2019 GDP growth rate to be one from three months ago.

7% down to 1.

2%.

  3, keyword three: US stock performance and important announcements CY18Q4 earnings season has been over half, according to facts and statistics, currently more than 47% of the S & P 500 constituents out of financial reports, of which 68.

5% profit is better than expected.

Compared with the super good performance ratio in the past three quarters, this earnings season is more “average”.

In the first three quarters of 2018, the earnings growth of the S & P 500 constituents exceeded 20%, and the current fourth quarter earnings growth rate was 12.

5%.

  We believe that the growth rate of the S & P 500 in 2019 must be lower 西安夜网 than in 2018, but it is only a decrease in growth rate, not an economic recession. Under the flood flood expectation, because the performance of the agent is good or bad, the stocks of the agent are different, but similar to the previous period of shrinkageThe probability that the overall market plunge in December may occur in the short to medium term.

With the expansion of the last time point of the Sino-US trade war negotiations on March 1 and the end of this rapid rebound, we continue to pay attention to the changes in the market brought about by the results of the trade war.Industries and companies with clear trends will still have better returns.

  US stocks financial report and important news:[Twitter]Twitter monthly active users in the fourth quarter3.

21 billion, market expectations3.

238 billion.

Fourth quarter revenue 9.

$ 88.8 billion, the market expected 8.

$ 67.1 billion.

Twitter expects first-quarter revenue to be in the range of 7.

15?
7.

$ 7.5 billion, the market is expected to be 7.

$ 66.1 billion.

Twitter said it plans to stop providing monthly activity data after the first quarter, replacing it with profitable daily active user data (profitable daily active users).

  [Google]EPS of the parent company in the fourth quarter was 12.

At $ 77, Google’s fourth-quarter revenue was 318 without traffic acquisition costs.

$ 400 million, analysts expected 313.

300 million US dollars (forecast range 303.

5-318.

$ 100 million).

Google products ‘estimated clicks increased 66% in the fourth quarter, Google Properties’ unit click costs fell 29% in the fourth quarter, and Google Properties ‘revenue in the fourth quarter was 270.

$ 200 million.

In the fourth quarter, operating margin increased by 21%, and operating income was 82.

0 billion US dollars.

Capital expenditure in the fourth quarter was 70.

$ 800 million, analysts expected 56.

600 million US dollars (forecast range 47.

4-63.

$ 300 million).

Google advertising revenue in the fourth quarter was 326.

400 million US dollars, other revenue 64.
$ 900 million.
  [Snapshot]Adjusted expectations for the fourth quarter are zero.

At $ 04, analysts expected zero.

08 dollars.

Fourth quarter revenue 3.

At $ 98.8 billion, analysts expected 3.

$ 77.5 billion.

The number of daily active users remained stable at 1 in the fourth quarter.

8.6 billion, analysts expected 1.

84 billion.

Revenue is expected to be 2 in the first quarter.

85-3.

One billion dollars, analysts expect 3.

$ 66.3 billion.

  [Pin Duoduo]The ADR issuance price is 25 USD per ADR.

According to Wall Street news, after the US stock market on February 5th, Pinduoduo announced the “billion-dollar additional offering + old stock sale” program. The prospectus is expected to replace the issuance costs, and the cumulative net proceeds from the new share issuance will exceed $ 1 billion.

  [Zendesk]Get 11.

Yesterday jumped 5% in the fourth quarter with earnings per share of $ 0.

Get consensus above 07 for $ 0 USD.

10. Revenue increased 41% year-on-year to $ 172.

2M.
In the first quarter, upward guidance revenue was 1.
$ 7.8 billion to 1.
$ 800 million (market consensus: $ 172).

84M) and FY19 revenue from 7.
$ 9.5 billion to 8.
$ 0.5 billion (consensus: $ 779).

31M).

  Overview of the latest views of Tianfeng Strategy-Enter the GEM rebound window period 1, since the beginning of the year, our view has always been to avoid growth stocks in January, even if there is a good rebound in growth at the beginning of the month, individual leaders have performed well, but the deadlineTo the overall GEM is still almost the worst performing index in the world.

  On January 29th, Tianfeng Strategy united the industry team. In the darkest moments of continuous thunderstorms, it was most optimistic about the oversold rebound of growth and recommended oversold portfolios.
For specific oversold portfolio targets, please refer to “End of Dark Time!”

Layout growth plate oversold portfolio!
“.
  At this time, we suggest that the logic of GEM lies in three points: First, the performance is over, and February will begin to lightly enter the battle; Second, many companies will shift their performance backwards, and there will be room for the GEM Q1 report to have poor expectations for repair; Third, science and technology innovationThe expected window before the board is officially launched, similar to the CDR unicorn of the same period last year, is good for head growth.

  We focus on promising directions: military industry, head brokers, network security, 5G, industrial Internet.

  2. The impact of the combination of the US economic and monetary policies on A-shares. In terms of the U.S. economy, judging from the current dazzling non-agricultural employment data, the U.S. economic growth momentum is still strong, but some domestic companies are still declining in 2019.It shows a decrease, especially from the January report of the ISM, and even the recent decline in raw material prices (the PMI price index decreased by 49.

6), but some US companies said that current profit margins are still being squeezed.

At the same time, the increase in oil prices by some chemical companies has increasingly raised doubts about whether the US economy can continue to grow in 2019.

  In terms of US monetary policy, on January 30, the Federal Reserve stated that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 2.

25% to 2.
5% is unchanged, and the follow-up will wait patiently and wait for the timing of further rate hikes, which is very different from the signal of a gradual rate hike released by the magnetic field.

The Fed’s latest statement, and then it will soon make a final decision on table reduction.

  Rationally, at the next stage, the most likely combination of US economic and monetary policy is that the economy will gradually fall from a high level, and monetary policy will turn to an alternate dovish state.

  If so, for A shares, the structure is more conducive to the growth direction, but it will bring a certain degree of disturbance to the white horse blue chips.

  First, the decline of the U.S. economy, weaker inflation, and a shift in monetary policy will all make it easy for U.S. Treasury yields. From the perspective of the spread between China and the U.S., the U.S. Treasury yields will reduce the decline in China’s Treasury interest rates and monetary policy spaceHinder.

In the downward phase of China’s treasury interest rates, the probability of growth style performance is relatively better.
  Secondly, from the perspective of the stock market, in the early stage of the economic downturn, EPS will be adjusted downwards, and risk appetite will be suppressed. Although the monetary policy has turned to pigeons, the probability of risk in US stocks is increasing.

  The reason for talking about U.S. stocks is its alternative connection with foreign exchange transactions.

  First look at a set of data: as of the end of 2018, all the remaining (Northbound + QFII + RQFII) holds the value of A stock market 1.

15 trillion, a 23 billion decline from the end of 2017.

Through segmentation and budgeting, in 2018, the net inflow of funds to the north was about 294 billion, and the remaining foreign exchange (QFII + RQFII, etc.) was a net replacement of about 200 billion.

  Although foreign capital inflows are a relatively long-term trend, foreign capital is not a static purchase.

Foreign exchange inflows have a strong correlation with the trend of U.S. stocks. Since 2018, when U.S. stocks have plummeted, they often correspond to swaps and decline with consumption. When U.S. stocks grow, they often correspond to inflows and consumption growth.

  Since the beginning of the year, the northward capital brought by the continuous growth of U.S. stocks has led to a rebound in consumer white horses, to a certain extent deviating from the future and continuing to fall.

We suggest that whether it is short-term trading or long-term holding, the best time to configure consumer white horses is the decline of U.S. stocks. When the northbound capital conversion causes consumption white horses to decline and dig pits, then we must dare to leave the market rich in temporaryAt the most pessimistic moment, allocate China’s core assets.

Risk warning: A-share performance fell faster than expected, US stocks fell, and trade wars changed.