Hengli Hydraulics (601100): Performance Forecast Meets Expectations 4Q19 Growth Accelerates

Hengli Hydraulics (601100): Performance Forecast Meets Expectations 4Q19 Growth Accelerates

Estimated earnings growth of 47 per year.


0% Hengli Hydraulics has released a performance forecast and expects a net profit of 12 in 2019.



80,000 yuan, an increase of 47 in ten years.


0%; deduct non-net profit 11杭州桑拿.


95 ‰, an increase of 51 in ten years.



The center of the forecast interval is 3% higher than our forecast, which is basically in line with expectations.

Focus points are expected to 4Q19 revenue, annual profit growth accelerated significantly.

Benefiting from the accelerated growth of the sales volume of the excavator industry in 4Q19, and the continued heavy volume of the company’s new pump and valve products, we estimate that the company’s revenue in 4Q19 is expected to increase by about 40% to $ 1.4 billion, which will increase revenue by 24% to $ 5.2 billion.

Single-quarter net profit in the fourth quarter of 19

1.3 billion to 3.

630,000 yuan, a sharp increase of 169 before.


3%, mainly due to the impairment of goodwill and asset impairment losses in the same period last 北京桑拿洗浴保健 year.

Net profit margin is expected to increase slightly in 4Q19.

According to the 4Q19 revenue of 14 trillion, we forecast the hub 4Q19 profit 3.

With a budget of 38 million U.S. dollars, the net profit margin in the fourth quarter of 19 single quarter exceeded 24%, an increase of 0 from the previous quarter.

2ppt or more.

Looking forward, through the increase in economies of scale, the proportion of high gross profit margin of the pump and valve business income increased, we believe that the company’s net profit margin will continue to grow.

Excavator cylinders and non-standard cylinders will grow steadily in 2019, and the pump and valve business will continue to grow.

Benefiting from the accelerated growth of the excavator industry and the accelerated delivery of excavator cylinders and pump valves, we estimate that in 2019, Hengli hydraulic excavator cylinders will have revenues of more than US $ 2.1 billion, an increase of more than 16%; the company’s non-standard cylinders will have revenues of more than US $ 1.3 billion,Increased by about 15%; the hydraulic technology revenue of pump, valve and motor business entities was 1.4 billion US dollars, which doubled in one year.

Sustained growth is not a problem, and we are optimistic again for a long time.

Looking forward to 2020, we expect that the demand of the excavator industry will increase steadily. The company’s non-standard cylinder business is expected to grow 15% to 20%, and the pump valve and motor business is expected to grow more than 40%.

Looking forward to 2020?
In 2022, through the company’s expansion of new products and continued growth of overseas markets, we expect the company’s profit-side compound growth rate is expected to reach 25?

Estimates and recommendations Taking into account the company’s performance forecast, we have raised our 2019/2020 earnings forecasts6.
1% / 4.

4% to 12.


0 billion at the same time?
Net profit forecast for 2021.

9 trillion, corresponding to a ten-year growth of 23%.

The company currently corresponds to 25.

9x / 21.

1x 2020 / 2021e P / E.
At the same time, considering the upward revision of profit forecast and the continued prosperity of the construction machinery industry, we are based on 30 of 2020e.

0x target P / E, correspondingly raise the company’s target price by 16% to 57.

90 yuan, 16% of upside, maintain outperform industry rating.

Risk excavator industry demand was less than expected, and the volume of new products fell short of expectations.