Halma Technology (002595): From a cost perspective, Halma Technology: A mold for the continuous expansion of human capital and its price repair space

Halma Technology (002595): From a cost perspective, Halma Technology: A mold for the continuous expansion of human capital and its price repair space
Report summary: The company’s human capital continued to expand, while maintaining a steady growth in per capita income generation and profits.The tire mold industry is a typical hydraulically intensive industry. After the company’s listing, the company’s production capacity has continued to expand. The company’s number of employees has reached 11,545, and its budget has exceeded $ 1.1 billion.The company’s per capita salary has been increased from 3 in 2011.760,000 / year rose to 9 in 2018.530,000 yuan / year, with an average annual compound growth rate of 14.twenty one%. However, due to the increase in production efficiency and the appearance of scale effects, the company’s per capita income has remained at 7%.With a compound annual growth rate of 51%, per capita profit creation remains stable. The proportion of wages and manufacturing expenses in the mold business increased significantly.Total manufacturing costs and wages accounted for 37 from 2011.88% increased to 63 in 2018.83%, and the proportion of materials costs from 58.44% recovered 33.56%, indicating that the labor cost increase has significantly increased the contribution to the cost side of the mold business.From 2011 to 2018, the company’s mold business costs increased by an average of 25 annually.57%, more than income 22.70% compound growth rate for the company’s mold business gross margin from 47 in 2011.84% acknowledged 38 in 2018.68%. The company’s fixed asset expansion is matched with income, and the exchange rate impact will gradually increase after 2015.With the expansion of the company’s production capacity, the company’s fixed assets have expanded.From 2011 to 2018, the company’s fixed assets scale increased from 3.19 ‰ increased to 15.36 trillion, compound growth rate reached 25.20%, with 27.33% revenue compound growth rate matches.In 2018, the company’s 1 yuan fixed asset investment corresponds to 2.43 yuan, the highest level since listing.The company’s fixed asset input and income scale and production level maintained a high degree of matching. The expansion of fixed asset and depreciation scales cannot be the main factor for the increase in unit input cost.After 2016, the company’s overseas revenue accounted for more than 50%. After the expansion of overseas income scale, the company’s exchange loss gains increased variability, and the impact of exchange rate factors on the company’s earnings increased. The company’s moat has further deepened, and the mold business provides price repair space.The 深圳桑拿网 competition between the company and the same industry keeps widening the gap, mainly because not only is it facing a shrinking revenue and share, but its profitability has also been compressed.The cost of a single tire mold for a foreign brand is less than 1%, and the cost of a domestic tire mold is generally not more than 3%.Under the circumstances that the overall profitability of the industry has declined since 2015 and the cost of raw materials and labor is high, we believe that the tire mold industry does have some room for price repair. Company earnings forecast and investment rating: We expect the company to achieve operating income of 44 in 2019-2021.9.2 billion, 51.24 billion, 59.3 billion; net profit attributable to mothers is 9.5.8 billion, 11.51 ppm and 13.19 ppm; EPS is 1.20 yuan, 1.44 yuan and 1.65 yuan, the 深圳丝袜会所 corresponding PE is 17 respectively.37X, 14.47X and 12.62X.Maintain the “Highly Recommended” rating. Risk reminders: 1. Dynamic fluctuations in raw material prices; 2. Lower-than-expected investment in the tire industry; 3. Changes in the exchange rate of the RMB; 4. Global trade protectionism is gradually heating up.